TFM Midday Update 05-02-2022

CORN

July corn down 17 @ 7.97
US corn planting is expected to show 17-20% complete this afternoon (which would be behind average)
6-10 and 8-14 day NOAA maps show above-normal precipitation across the Midwest which could further delay planting
Front-month contracts gapped lower overnight
Rain delays could potentially lower corn acres by 1 million and lower the yield below 180
Argentina’s corn crop is rated 19% good to excellent and harvest is 25% complete

July soybeans down 37 @ 16.48
Soybean oil had a reversal from the high on Friday and is lower at midday
Soybean oil is worth as much as soybean meal (as a percentage of crush) for the first time in 20 years
Planting progress this afternoon is expected to show 8-9% complete (which, like corn, is behind the average)
Palm oil is higher, driven by the Indonesian bans on exports
Argentina’s soybean crop is rated 16% good to excellent and harvest is 46% complete

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Jul wheat down 4 @ 10.52, Jul KC down 6 @ 11.00, & Jul MNPLS up 3 @ 11.69
Last week the US Dollar Index hit 103.9280 (the highest since 2002) and which may pressure wheat
Northern Plains may be drier this week which could allow for some fieldwork
War in Ukraine continues with no end in sight
Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, along with western Kansas are likely to miss upcoming rain
A heatwave is hitting India, potentially reducing their wheat crop

Jun LC down 1.800 @ 134.450 & May FC up 5.050 @ 161.400
June is now the front month in live cattle and is at a discount to cash
Large chart gaps in live cattle are still above the market and may need to be filled
Packers may be less aggressive as they have some contracted ahead
Choice cuts down 1.82 and select down 3.09
Cattle slaughter projected at 123K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 4/29: down 0.72 @ 155.64

Brandon Doherty