TFM Midday Update 05-02-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading mixed at midday, with increased corn acres and favorable weather, but still drawing support from yesterday’s favorable export report.
The 6–14 day forecast for the Northern Plains and Western Corn Belt shows mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures, favorable for accelerated planting. Meanwhile, the percentage of corn acreage affected by drought has declined to 20%, down 6 points from last week.
In Argentina, the corn harvest has now reached 31% complete, according to the Buenos Aires Exchange.
Corn markets may face downward pressure ahead, driven by expectations of increased U.S. corn acreage, a large Brazilian crop, and the absence of any major weather-related disruptions in the U.S.

Soybean futures are trading higher at midday, maintaining strong momentum. The market is finding underlying support from a minor overnight breakthrough in U.S.–China trade discussions. While soybeans and soybean meal are posting gains, soybean oil is trading lower.
Overnight, a potential breakthrough emerged as China indicated it is evaluating the need for trade talks with the U.S., following a recent outreach from Washington. However, with China on holiday until May 5th, any formal negotiations are expected to be on hold until then.
U.S. soybeans have recently lost competitiveness in global markets as Brazilian export premiums have dropped sharply.
Recent rainfall has reduced the share of U.S. soybean acreage under drought conditions to 15%, down 6 percentage points from last week and now below last year’s level of 17%.
Soybean oil remains under pressure at midday, weighed down by weakness in both crude oil and palm oil markets.

Wheat futures remain firm at midday, supported by the sharply lower U.S. dollar and a very oversold technical situation.
A significant drop in U.S. wheat prices has made U.S. wheat more competitive on the global market, potentially boosting business for U.S. exporters.
Overnight, South Korean flour millers secured nearly 36,000 metric tons of U.S. mixed wheat.
Early this morning, storms are moving across the Texas Panhandle and much of Oklahoma, with showers also affecting Kansas and Nebraska. Additional soaking rains are expected next week, which should benefit wheat crops currently under drought stress.

Lauren VandenLangenberg