TFM Midday Update 05-03-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher today for the third day in a row, has broken out of its sideways pattern, and is now trading above the 100-day moving average for the first time since October of last year. Excessive rains leading to planting delays have been supportive.
The recent gains in corn are likely a combination of potential planting delays in the US, hot and dry weather for Brazil’s second crop corn, and the very large short position that the funds hold which they have likely been exiting.
Argentina’s Buenos Aires Exchange cut its corn production estimate to 46.5 mmt from 49.5 million and down 10 million from the early season estimate, due to insect, disease, and weather damage.

Soybeans are trading higher today but have backed slightly off their earlier highs. July soybeans are on track for their third consecutive higher close, and for nearly a 30-cent gain on the week. Soybean meal is trading higher again while soybean oil is lower.
In Brazil, the soybean growing areas around Rio Grande do Sul are experiencing flooding, which is delaying harvest, and reportedly 25% of the crop in that region is still in the field potentially causing significant losses in production.
Private exporters reported to the US Department of Agriculture export sales of 122,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.

All three wheat classes are trading sharply higher this morning led by Chicago wheat. The July contract has not yet taken out the high from April 26, but it is above the 200-day moving average.
Consultancy firm IKAR has lowered its estimate for the 24/25 Russian wheat crop by 2 mmt to 91 mmt. Its export outlook has been lowered to 50.5 mmt from 52 mmt.
In India, wheat stocks are reportedly much lower than a year ago, and hot and dry forecasts over the next month could threaten this year’s wheat production. At the moment, global weather is an issue that is affecting wheat in many different areas.

Amanda Brill