TFM Midday Update 05-07-2024

CORN

According to the USDA, corn planting progress has reached 36%, up from 27% last week but lagging behind last year’s 42% and the average of 39%.
December corn has traded higher for four consecutive sessions. A higher close today would mark the fifth, but upside resistance is nearing the 200-day moving average around the 495 area.
A hot and dry pattern in Mato Grosso, Brazil may be impacting their safrinha corn crop production, with a leafhopper plague said to be affecting the Argentine corn crop as well. Both of these factors should provide support to US futures.

According to the USDA, soybean planting progress has reached 25%, up from 18% last week. While this lags behind last year’s 30%, it remains above the average pace of 21%.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday, but not showing as much follow through strength as yesterday. This may be attributed to profit taking and farmer selling after futures have reached the highest levels since January.
The flooding in Rio Grande Do Sul is not only impacting soybean harvest but also affecting crush in South America. Typically, Argentina would import soybeans from southern Brazil for crushing. However, this year, the reduced or potentially unavailable supply may disrupt this usual practice.

The USDA reported that the winter wheat crop improved slightly to 50% rated good to excellent, up 1% from last week. Additionally, spring wheat planting progress surged to 47%, compared to 34% last week. This figure surpasses last year’s 21% and the average of 31%.
Kansas City wheat futures are lower at midday, likely due to recent rains that went through some of the drier areas of the southwestern US Plains. Minneapolis futures are also lower, with the planting progress data being well ahead of average.
According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values are firming, with an increase of $4 to $216 per mt FOB last week. Although Black Sea wheat is still the world’s cheapest, if this pattern continues it could make US exports more competitive.

Brandon Doherty