TFM Midday Update 05-09-2023

CORN

Corn is trading sharply lower following a Chinese cancellation of 10.7 mb of previously purchased US corn for 22/23. Brazilian corn remains cheaper than US offers enticing Chinese buyers.
Planting progress was faster than expected at 49% complete, above the average and above trade guesses. Illinois is 73% complete, Iowa at 70%, but Minnesota at only 38% and Indiana 36%.
The upcoming weather should allow a good seeding pace to continue with some intermittent rain, and Thursday and Friday widespread showers are expected.
Brazil’s forward sales of their second crop corn are behind the average pace at just 24.3%. The crop is currently estimated at 92.2 mmt and usually makes up 70 to 75% of Brazilian corn production.

Soybeans, along with soybean meal and oil, are all lower today under pressure from the faster than expected planting pace, lower crude oil, and a higher US dollar.
35% of the soybean crop is planted, which is 14 points higher than the 5-year average pace. Illinois is 66% complete, Iowa at 49%, but North Dakota and Minnesota lagging at 0% and 13% respectively.
Soybean oil is still under pressure, but palm oil has continued its rally for the fifth consecutive day. This should be supportive for soybean oil in the shorter term.
News that China’s April imports of soybeans is down 10% versus a year ago at just 7.26 mmt has been weighing on the market and makes it unclear if their economy is recovering as much as they have claimed.

Wheat is trading lower, led down by Chicago wheat with KC and Minn wheat only slightly lower. Pressure comes from a gap lower on Paris milling wheat futures.
Crop conditions continue to worsen for US winter wheat. The good to excellent rating improved by 1%, but the poor to very poor rating jumped 2% to 44%.
In Kansas, the wheat crop is rated just 11% good to excellent while the poor to very poor rating is at a whopping 68%, with Texas and Oklahoma not much better.
Russian state media said that high level meetings will take place on May 10-11 between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN, most likely to try to come to an agreement about the Black Sea corridor agreement.

Amanda Brill