TFM Midday Update 05-09-2024

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 35.0 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 1.9 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 48.5 mb exceeded the 37.7 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 2.1 bb.
The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 corn carryout is pegged at 2.098 bb, compared to 2.122 in April. World ending stocks for 23/24 corn are expected to come in at 315.3 mmt, down from 318.3 in April.
US 24/25 corn production is anticipated at 14.897 bb vs 15.342 in 22/23. In addition, the trade is looking for 23/24 Argentina corn production to drop from 55.0 to 52.0 mmt, with Brazil production falling from 124 to 122.5 mmt.
The US weather forecast still appears to show that planting progress will be slow for the next 10 days or so. This should provide some support to corn futures, along with the fact that the December contract is holding support above the 100-day moving average so far today.
Ethanol production dropped 2% from the previous week and was also under 1 million barrels per day for the fourth consecutive week. But with the lower production, stocks have fallen to the lowest level since late last year.

The USDA reported an increase of 15.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.2 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 11.2 mb fell below the 12.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 1.700 bb.
The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 soybean carryout is pegged at 341 mb, slightly above 340 in April. World ending stocks for 23/24 soybeans are expected to come in at 112.4 mmt, down from 114.2 in April.
US 24/25 soybean production is anticipated at 4.430 bb vs 4.165 in 22/23. In addition, the trade is looking for 23/24 Argentina soybean production to drop from 50.0 to 49.5 mmt, with Brazil production falling from 155.0 to 152.6 mmt.
Rains are expected to return to Rio Grande do Sul over the weekend continuing to cause worries about more flooding and potential crop loss.
The Rosario Grain Exchange kept their forecast of Argentina’s soybean production unchanged at 50 mmt, which is in line with the USDA.

The USDA reported an increase of only 1.5 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 14.9 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 12.4 mb fell below the 13.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 710 mb.
The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 wheat carryout is pegged at 689 mb, compared to 698 in April. World ending stocks for 23/24 wheat are expected to come in at 258.1 mmt, down from 258.3 in April.
US 24/25 all wheat production is anticipated at 1.889 bb vs 1.812 in 22/23. Of that total, winter wheat in particular is expected at 1.305 bb vs 1.248.
Egypt purchased a total of 420,000 mt of wheat on their tender yesterday. Of that total 60,000 mt came from Romania. The remaining 360,000 mt were sourced from Russia, reportedly at $255 per mt FOB.
Wheat is showing some strength at midday, likely due to talks that the frost damage in parts of Russia may have caused more damage to the winter wheat crop than initially anticipated.

Brandon Doherty