TFM Midday Update 05-11-2021

CORN

  • Jul Corn up 18 @ 7.29 & Dec corn up 6 @ 6.16
  • Corn planting progress 67% in US – average 52%
  • Crop emergence 20% – cool weather delayed in some areas
  • In the past 2 days, China bought 93.7 mb (canceled 13.4)
  • US basis still extremely tight and on the rise
  • Brazil crop areas have continued to wilt with lack of rain/high temps
  • O/I: Lost 6,381 positions in Jul futures

SOYBEANS

  • Jul up 32 @ 16.19 & Nov up 16 @ 14.31
  • World veg oils made a correction and lending support
  • US planting 42% complete – fastest start in 12 years
  • Emergence is 10% ahead of 4% average
  • Drought continues to compromise northern Plains
  • O/I: Lost 5,612 positions in July futures

WHEAT

  • Jul wheat up 13 @ 7.43, Jul KC up 12 @ 7.15, Jul MNPLS up 16 @ 7.69
  • Not enough rains in Montana & Dakotas to counter drought
  • Unlikely – but wheat needs to pick up in exports to meet USDA projections
  • Spring wheat planting now 70% and 29% emerged
  • North Dakota topsoil moisture at 80% less than adequate
  • Winter wheat rating at 49% – 1% up from last week
  • O/I: Lost 3,472 positions in Jul wheat & gained 80 positions in KC Jul wheat

CATTLE

  • Jun LC down 0.22 @ 118.00 & Aug FC down 0.55 @ 148.15
  • Strength in boxed beef will require packers to satisfy demand
  • No cash bids/offers yet – packers don’t want to bid higher
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 1219K
  • Feeder Cattle Cash index for May 7; down 0.68 @ 130.15
  • Open interest lost 7,413 for Jun futures & gained 180 for Aug FC

HOGS

  • Jun hogs down 1.07 @ 111.02 & Jun Pork Cutout down 1.47 @ 116.57
  • No indication demand has slowed or hogs have become more abundant
  • Lower cash is of some concern – close to resistance?
  • Hog slaughter projected at 484K
  • Cash Lean Index for May 6; up 0.67 @ 109.22
  • O/I: Lost 7,977 for Jun hogs & Jun pork cutout lost 2 positions

Author

Amberlee Bratcher

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