TFM Midday Update 05-15-2023

CORN

The lower HRW wheat crop could suggest higher corn feeding in the southwestern US.
Central Brazil is on the dry side, which raises some question about their safrinha crop.
With the May WASDE report out of the way, the market will likely now focus on weather. Currently, conditions in the Midwest are mostly favorable.
Heavy rains over the weekend in the northern Corn Belt caused some flooding issues and planting delays.
On Friday’s CFTC report, managed funds are still short more than 100,000 contracts (as of last Tuesday).

There is concern about Argentina’s economy with soaring inflation, and there is question as to whether or not they can ship the amount of meal that they do normally.
There is indication that some meal buyers may be shifting demand to the US, with export sales last week higher than expected.
The USDA estimate of 335 mb of US 23/24 soybean carryout would be the highest in 4 years.
The Rosario Exchange estimated Argentina’s soybean crop at 21.5 mmt, which is 5.5 mmt lower than the USDA on Friday’s WASDE report.

On Friday’s report the USDA estimated 1.66 bb of US wheat production, which was lower than expected. This number, if true, will mean the lowest three years of wheat production in 50 years.
So far there has been no new news on the Black Sea export deal and whether or not it will be renewed. The current deal is set to expire in just a few days.
The USDA projected Kansas winter wheat production at 191.4 mb, which would be the lowest number in over 50 years.
The El Nino pattern this year could lead to drought issues for Australia’s wheat crop.

Brandon Doherty