TFM Midday Update 05-17-2023


  • December corn hit a 1-year low yesterday, likely in anticipation of a record Brazil safrinha crop, as well as a larger US corn crop this fall.
  • US weather looks mostly favorable for planting, but North Dakota is still behind with only 5% of the crop planted.
  • Private exporters reported the cancellation of 272,000 mt of corn for delivery to China during the 22/23 marketing year.


  • North Dakota is said to only have 2% of the soybean crop planted, which could mean prevented acres in 2023.
  • July soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange were down 2.3% yesterday, around the equivalent of $15.41 per bushel.
  • July soybean futures have filled the gap that was left on the chart back in late July of 2022 (from 13.55-3/4)
  • Brazilian soybean oil is now the world’s cheapest vegetable oil.


  • The Day 1 yield estimate on the HRW wheat crop tour was 29.8 bpa (this is the worst number since the tour began in 2003 – normal is around 45 bpa).
  • The last vessel left a Black Sea port Wednesday, as expiration of the corridor deal is upon us. However, some sources are reporting that Turkey has announced another extension.
  • JP Morgan has stated that a recession is certain, which could mean that commodity demand down the road is still a major concern.


Brandon Doherty

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