TFM Midday Update 05-18-2023


  • The USDA reported net cancellations of 13.3 mb of 22/23 corn export sales, but an increase of 2.9 mb for 23/24.
  • Funds continue to add to net short positions, vs a long position at this time last year.
  • The US Midwest weather is mostly favorable and long-range forecasts do not indicate heat levels this summer that would cause the market to rally sharply.
  • China’s recent corn cancellations now total 43.5 mb.


  • The USDA reported an increase of 0.6 mb of 22/23 soybean export sales and an increase of 24.4 mb for 23/24.
  • Despite earlier weakness, soybeans are around neutral and as of this writing have had a wide daily trading range. July soybeans so far today are in about a 25-cent range.
  • NOPA stocks were higher than expected, which may put some pressure on soybean oil.
  • Palm oil is lower for the 4th day in a row and that could also weigh on soybean oil.


  • The USDA reported net cancellations of 1.5 mb of 22/23 wheat export sales, but an increase of 12.4 mb for 23/24.
  • The day 2 yield estimate on the HRW wheat crop tour came in at 27.5 bpa (vs 37 last year).
  • Rains in Kansas are offering some resistance to the wheat market, even though it may be too little too late for that crop. The moisture could be beneficial to spring planted crops though.
  • The Black Sea Grain Initiative has officially been extended for another 60 days.


Brandon Doherty

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