TFM Midday Update 05-19-2022

CORN

Jul corn up 5 @ 7.86
Weekly export sales came in at 435,300 mt for 21/22, which is up from last week, and net sales of 588,500 mt were reported for 22/23
Exports of 1,380,100 mt were down 8% from last week and 11% from the prior 4-week average
Corn is trying to stay green after yesterday’s sharp sell-off in most commodities and equity markets
Key support was held in July above the 50-day average at 7.64
With fundamentals still strong, yesterday may have been seen as a buying opportunity

Jul soybeans up 28 @ 16.90
Weekly export sales were 752,700 mt for 21/22, which was up from the previous week, and net sales of 149,500 mt were reported for 22/23
Exports of 957,200 mt were up noticeably from the previous week, and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average
Soybean futures are making a strong bounce back after yesterday’s sell-off, with help from higher meal
Soybean oil is lower – fueled by outside selling from crude oil weakness and India’s decision to end the short-term ban on palm oil exports

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Jul wheat down 22 @ 12.09, Jul KC down 21 @ 13.04, & Jul MNPLS down 9 @ 13.44
Wheat futures are still lower, despite strong fundamentals and the rest of the grain complex recovering today, thanks to Russian wheat crop estimates moving higher
Scouts on the second day of the Wheat Quality Council HRW tour found an average yield of 37 bu per acre in western and southern areas of Kansas, down from 56.7 bpa last year
Ukraine has said that three crops are at risk this summer with last years crop unable to be exported, this year’s unable to be fully harvested, and next year’s unlikely to be completely planted

Jun LC up 0.100 @ 131.600 & May FC down 1.475 @ 154.375
Live cattle have been unable to find support from either higher cash or lower corn, and demand is lagging with inflation slowing consumer buying
Futures may stabilize ahead of the Cattle on Feed report, as they are currently undersold
The packer has continued to purchase cattle ahead of time, allowing them to be less aggressive in the cash market
Choice cuts down 0.01 and select down 2.17
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 5/18: down 0.22 @ 155.05

Jul hogs down 0.525 @ 108.000 & Jun pork cutout down 0.250 @ 112.100
Yesterday posted the fourth straight day of gains for lean hogs, supported by rising cash
The cutout rose again and shows strong demand leading into grilling season
Hog weights have fallen 2.5 pounds this week, averaging 286.4 pounds
National Direct Afternoon report has cash up 0.31
Hog slaughter projected at 479K
CME Lean Hog Index for 5/19: up 0.18 @ 100.08

Amanda Brill