TFM Midday Update 05-19-2023


  • Despite a lower soybean crop estimate, Argentina kept their corn crop production unchanged at 36 mmt.
  • The International Grain Council estimated the 23/24 corn crop at a near-record 1.2 billion metric tons.
  • China has 84 mb of US corn remaining on the books, meaning that more cancellations are possible.
  • The climate prediction center is forecasting drought improvement in the western US Plains over the next 3 months.
  • July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa exchange is making new lows and trading around the equivalent of $4.49 per bushel.


  • Argentina lowered their soybean crop estimate to 21 mmt from 22.5 previously. The USDA is still using a number of 27 mmt.
  • Stochastics for both July and November soybeans indicate oversold conditions.
  • Soybean crush premium (based on July futures) is down 12 cents this week to $1.89 per bushel. This is the lowest number since last summer.
  • Crude oil is higher at midday, offering some support to the soybean oil market. Higher palm oil is also supportive.


  • Parts of the southwestern Plains, including parts of Texas and Oklahoma, will see some more beneficial rains.
  • The HRW crop tour came up with a yield of 30 bpa (vs a 5-year average of 45 bpa), and the lowest crop production estimate since 1963, at 178 mb.
  • Despite the Black Sea corridor extension, there are said to be 62 vessels waiting for inspection, which is a slow process.
  • Ukraine’s president is going to Japan to visit with the G7, to ask for support against Russia.
  • Russian wheat export FOB values hit a 22-month low, at $250 per metric ton.


Brandon Doherty

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates