TFM Midday Update 05-25-2023

CORN

Corn is drifting slightly lower after another week of poor export sales and concern over outside markets as the debt ceiling issue remains unresolved and the deadline fast approaching.
Forecasts for the Midwest are calling for warm and dry conditions over the next two to three weeks, but some European models are calling for scattered showers, which may help cool temperatures down.
Export sales for the week ending May 18 showed net sales cancellations of 3.0 mb, which was down 78% from the previous week. There was an increase of 2.1 mb for 23/24, and shipments were 59.2 mb, above the 41.1 mb needed each week.
There is concern over the Chinese economy, with growth expectations being revised lower there according to Bloomberg, and demand for corn may lessen as they opt to feed wheat instead.

Soybeans are lower after poor export sales and another drop in soybean meal that has taken July futures to their lowest levels since November 2022.
As the dollar rises today, crude oil has fallen over two dollars a barrel and is trading just above 72 dollars a barrel. This has not affected the soybean oil market, which is trading higher with higher palm oil.
The USDA reported an increase of 4.2 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, and last week’s export shipments of 10.6 mb were below the 13.0 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.
Argentina’s soy crop is reportedly 78% harvested and local exchanges are estimating production at just 21 mmt, 6 mmt lower than the most recent USDA estimate.

All three wheat products are trading higher today despite net sales reductions in the export sales report. The gridlock in the Black Sea may be supporting prices.
The USDA reported net sales cancellations of 1.7 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23, but an increase of 9.0 mb for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 14.2 mb were far below the 39.2 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.
There has been confirmation that US mills have imported wheat supplies from both Poland and Germany into the southwest and Texas Gulf.
In Argentina, rain has begun to fall, which is too late to be beneficial to their corn and bean crops and is delaying that harvest, but will be beneficial for soil moisture in the upcoming wheat planting.

Amanda Brill