TFM Midday Update 05-31-2024

CORN

Corn is trading mostly lower at midday as it slipped from its earlier morning highs, as selling pressure continues. Open interest has risen by about 50,000 contracts over the past three trading sessions, which could indicate that funds are reentering their short positions.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 31.9 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 in the week ending May 23 and an increase of 7.4 mb for 24/25. This was in the middle of the range of trade expectations and puts commitments up 31% from a year ago.
Last week’s export shipments of 41.1 million bushels were above the 39.0 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.

Soybeans are trading higher today but along with corn, prices have slipped from overnight highs. Soybean meal is trading higher, while soybean oil is slightly lower but has been mostly rangebound over the past two weeks. Both July and November soybeans remain above their 100-day moving averages.
For the week ending May 23, the USDA reported an increase in export sales totaling 12.1 million bushels of soybeans for 23/24 and an increase of 0.3 mb for 24/25. This was also within trade expectations but continues the trend of poor export sales. Sales commitments are now down 15% from a year ago.
Last week’s export shipments of 7.7 million bushels were below the 12.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate of 1.700 bb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.

All three wheat classes are now trading lower after reversing from overnight highs with Chicago wheat now leading the way lower. Prices are now over 30 cents off Tuesday’s highs and the selloff is likely due to farmer selling and technicals cooling off after being overbought.
For the week ending May 23, the USDA reported net cancellations totaling 2.2 million bushels of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 14.0 mb for 24/25. Total sales were on the low end of trade estimates for old crop but above trade estimates for new crop.
Last week’s export shipments of 13.0 mb were below the 20.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s estimate of 720 mb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan.

Amanda Brill