TFM Midday Update 06-02-2023

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 7.4 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 12.3 mb for 23/24.
According to the USDA, about 34% of US corn production areas are in drought as of May 30^th.
Today’s weather forecast is mostly dry for the next 10 days in the Midwest, but the western Plains look like they will have better chances for rain. In fact, there are flash flood warnings around the Texas panhandle.
July corn is seeing more price pressure vs new crop. This is likely due to the start of Brazil’s safrinha crop harvest and the fact that their prices are lower than the US.

The USDA reported an increase of 4.5 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 11.1 mb for 23/24.
According to the USDA, about 28% of US soybean production areas are in drought as of May 30^th.
The NASS Crush report showed 187 mb of US soybeans were crushed in April. In addition, soybean oil stocks at the end of April were up 3% from (vs last year) and meal stocks were up 28% for the same time frame.
Brazil is said to have harvested 5.7 billion bushels of soybeans, which would be the most on record for a single country. Additionally, they are said to have exported 15.1 mmt in May, which is 40% above last year.

The USDA reported net cancellations of 7.7 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 17.1 mb for 23/24.
According to Ukrainian officials, Russia is reportedly refusing to register Ukrainian grain vessels. This is not the first time this news has surfaced, but it signifies that there is still much tension between the two nations, even after the Black Sea deal was last extended.
The wet weather has subsided for now in China’s wheat growing regions. However, the recent heavy rains could cause quality reductions, or even crop loss.
As of the latest Commitments of Traders report, funds are said to be short 605 mb of SRW wheat. For reference, the USDA is estimating US production of that crop at 406 mb in 2023.

Brandon Doherty