TFM Midday Update 06-06-2022

CORN

Jul corn up 15 @ 7.42
Corn is higher following Russia bombing 2 key Ukrainian ports, damaging grain elevators and making the export of grain and sun oil far less likely
North Dakota’s forecast remains mostly dry, which will improve planting conditions, while the Corn Belt can expect moderate rain amounts in the next five days
The USDA will release their Planting Progress report and first corn crop assessment of the new season, with analysts expecting a rating of about 70% good-to-excellent
Friday’s CFTC data showed that funds sold 23,648 contracts, reducing their net long position to 404,200 contracts

Jul soybeans up 3 @ 17.01
The soybean complex is trading slightly higher after China finally begins to ease Covid restrictions
Both crude oil and soybean oil are lower, while soybean meal maintains small gains
Argentina’s crop has been battered by drought and is now 94% harvested according to the Buenos Aires grain exchange
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as buyers of soybeans, increasing their net long position by 1,563 contracts to 164,630 contracts

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Jul wheat up 60 @ 11.00, Jul KC up 57 @ 11.78, & Jul MNPLS up 52 @ 12.43
Wheat is trading near limit up with Chicago wheat leading the way following Russia’s attack on two key Ukrainian ports, throwing a wet blanket on the idea that Ukrainian exports would be allowed
Russia renewed their attack on Kyiv with long-range missiles after they threatened to go after new targets in response to new weapons supplied by the West
The USDA will have it’s first assessment of winter wheat harvest progress in the US this afternoon at 3p.m. CDT and expectations remain low
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as sellers of KC wheat by 2,403 contracts to 36,267 contracts

Jun LC down 0.075 @ 133.525 & Aug FC down 1.150 @ 172.650
Live cattle are higher, while feeders are lower, spooked by the concern that corn prices will continue to rise after it seems more obvious that Ukraine will not be able to export
Both domestic and foreign demand will need to increase to work through the heavier supplies of beef coming to the market
Cash should be either steady or slightly lower this week
Choice cuts up 0.61 and select up 0.39
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/3: up 0.81 @ 154.29

Jul hogs down 1.800 @ 108.950 & Jun pork cutout down 1.600 @ 112.400
Hogs are lower following a decline in cash, and a decline of 2.64 in the cutout as the packer did not need to be aggressive with purchases
Hog weights are above a year ago and the five-year average for this time of year which may offset the bullishness of tightening hog numbers
Futures are mostly trading alongside the cash market so prices will be determined by the packers need for hogs this week
National Direct Afternoon report has cash down 3.13
Hog slaughter projected at 475K
CME Lean Hog Index for 6/6: up 1.02 @ 108.175

Amanda Brill