Corn is trading higher today with front month July leading the way up, while December is showing only slight gains. Crop progress was supportive, while wetter forecasts may limit upward movement.
64% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent which is a decline from last month and the lowest rating for this date since 2013. Illinois is a concern with only 50% of the crop rated good to excellent.
DTN’s 7-day forecast is calling for moderate rain ranging from Montana to the US Gulf, and beneficial amounts in Kansas and Missouri. A front is also expected to move through the US this weekend.
In Brazil, the second crop corn is off to a good start and could be a record crop, but there is a potential frost threat in June which could move through safrinha corn areas.
Soybeans began the day lower but have reversed higher, while soybean meal and oil have reversed positions as well, with meal now lower and oil higher despite a slip in crude oil.
62% of the soybean crop is rated good to excellent which is the lowest rating for that date since 2014 due to the dry weather. Iowa was rated at 70% while Illinois was rated at only 51%.
Brazil continues to dominate the export market with soybeans, but demand from China may be lagging as their economic growth is potentially slower than expected.
August palm oil fell by 1.9% after reports came out that Malaysia may end up with a surge in output of about 4.7%.
Wheat was an early leader in the grain complex after news of escalations in Ukraine were reported, but prices have backed up from their highs and are now lower on the day.
Ukraine claims that Russia blew up a major dam that could threaten hundreds of thousands of residents, the nuclear power plant, as well as major wheat-growing areas.
Yesterday, the USDA said that 82% of the winter wheat is headed and 4% harvested with 36% being rated good to excellent which was up 2% from the previous week.
On Friday, NASS will update its estimate of winter wheat production and the USDA will do the same in the WASDE. Traders are expecting the USDA to reduce export estimates for wheat for the 22/23 year.
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