TFM Midday Update 06-07-2022


  • Jul corn up 13 @ 7.55
  • Corn is higher this morning after the USDA reported that 94% of the corn crop is planted with 73% receiving a good-to-excellent rating
  • 5.4 million acres still need to be planted, with roughly 1.2 million acres unplanted in North Dakota and Minnesota, but a dry forecast this week will allow for good progress to be made
  • Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, reduced its estimate of Brazil’s corn production in 21/22 by 4.50 bb
  • Yesterday’s trade saw bull spreading in corn take the July contract to 28 cents over September, thanks to strong demand and anticipation of an early harvest


  • Jul soybeans up 21 @ 17.21
  • Soybeans just popped after spending most of the morning lower, thanks to a jump in crude oil that supporting soybean meal and oil as well
  • The USDA reported 78% of the soybean crop has been planted and 56% emerged, close to the five-year average for both
  • July soybeans on the Dalian exchange closed at the equivalent of $22.45 a bushel, near its highest price on record and driven by rising prices of soybean oil
  • China may be shopping for nearby beans, with July currently up roughly 272 cents


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  • Jul wheat down 30 @ 10.64, Jul KC down 30 @ 11.40, & Jul MNPLS down 14 @ 12.17
  • Wheat is lower following the USDA reporting that 30% of the winter wheat crop received a rating of good-to-excellent, up a percentage point from last week
  • 5% of the crop is harvested, mostly in Texas, but also in Oklahoma, with 79% of the rest of the crops headed, signaling that harvesting will pick up speed
  • 82% of the spring wheat crop has been reported planted, leaving about 2.0 million acres to go, mostly in North Dakota and Minnesota
  • Spring wheat’s final planting date for crop insurance was Sunday, but with prices so enticing, planting remains the better option for many farmers


  • Jun LC up 0.675 @ 133.500 & Aug FC up 0.175 @ 172.150
  • With the impressive jump in boxed beef, cash trade today may end up steady to higher, which would be supportive to live cattle futures, while feeders are higher despite higher corn
  • The packer has been contracted ahead over the past few weeks, but holding back to purchase at lower prices has brought them more current and should make them more aggressive
  • Friday’s CFTC showed funds selling 4,229 contracts in live cattle, bringing their net long position to just 12,085 contracts
  • Choice cuts up 2.32 and select up 1.07
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/5: up 4.24 @ 158.53


  • Jul hogs down 0.250 @ 108.725 & Jun pork cutout down 1.050 @ 111.500
  • Hogs are modestly lower, but the hope is that the packer will be more aggressive today, as they look to procure more hogs early in the week
  • Hogs closed a dollar off their lows yesterday, but remained red, and futures have started trading in a more sideways pattern
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed the funds switching to being buyers, adding 3,610 contracts, increasing their net long position to 18,491 contracts
  • National Direct Afternoon report has cash down 0.11
  • Hog slaughter projected at 475K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 6/7: up 1.29 @ 107.34


Amanda Brill

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