TFM Midday Update 06-07-2023

CORN

Corn is trading mixed midday with front month July trading slightly higher, while deferred contracts are lower.
Forecasts for the Corn Belt trended a bit wetter and cooler overnight which is pressuring new crop, while on-hand supplies remain tight.
Brazil’s FOB corn offers are reportedly at an 85-cent discount to offers from the US at the equivalent of $4.60 per bushel giving Brazil a clear advantage over exports.
Corn good to excellent ratings came in at 64% and with recent dryness, ratings could decline further on next week’s report.

Soybeans are mixed as well, with July higher by a few cents but deferred contracts lower. Front month soybean meal is higher, while soybean oil is lower despite higher crude.
Scattered showers are falling from Minnesota into the eastern Corn Belt. The 15-day weather forecast is mixed with the GFS model showing more widespread rains and the European models showing modest coverage.
China’s imports of Brazilian soybeans have increased over the past month due to their significantly cheaper offers.
August palm oil fell by 1.9% after reports came out that Malaysia may end up with a surge in output of about 4.7%.

Wheat is trading sharply lower at midday after hovering near unchanged this morning. There are many bullish fundamentals that should be supporting prices, but Russia continues to undercut the market with offers as low as $299/mt.
The big news yesterday was the explosion of the Ukrainian dam which is causing major flooding in both residential and agricultural land, as well as disruptions to irrigation systems.
Argentinian wheat is being planted with poor soil moisture, Australia’s 23/24 wheat production was cut to just 26.2 mmt, and China’s wheat crop has been hit with heavy rainfall severely cutting into production.
In the US, crop ratings are not good but did increase slightly following rains in HRW wheat areas. US spring wheat should be watched for heat and dryness, however.

Amanda Brill