TFM Midday Update 06-08-2023

CORN

Corn is mixed at midday with July higher and deferred contracts lower as the bull spreading continues and forecasts turn wetter.
The GFS weather model has shown more rain than the European, but the European has slowly been shifting to be more in line with the GFS and added rainfall over the next 10 days in the Midwest.
Net sales of corn for 22/23 were 172,700 mt and were down 8% from the previous week but up from the prior 4-week average. There were net sales reductions for the 23/24 marketing year of 106,800 mt.
Corn exports of 1,244,700 mt were down 13% from the previous week and 4% from the prior 4-week average as Brazil continues to sell corn for significantly cheaper.

The soy complex is mixed alongside corn with front months higher but November slightly lower. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is getting support from higher crude oil.
Palm oil futures have been a large bearish factor for the soybean oil market and palm oil fell 1.72% today as supplies continue to rise in both Malaysia and Indonesia.
China is ramping up their soy purchases chiefly from Brazil and taken in 12.2 mmt in April, which was an increase of 24% from a year ago. Estimates for their imports in May and June are between 12 and 14 mmt.
Net soybean sales for 22/23 were 207,200 mt, up 68% from the previous week, and up from the prior 4-week average. Sales for 23/24 were 264,600 mt, and exports of 247,600 mt were up 7% from the previous week.

Wheat is trading higher today with Minneapolis leading the way and KC following behind. It is possible that ramifications from the Ukrainian dam explosion are supporting the market today.
Russia continues to keep their grip on the export market making sales to Egypt, and there have been reports of Russian offers for August as low as $226/mt FOB Black Sea for 12.5 protein wheat.
In tomorrow’s WASDE report traders are expecting a slight increase to US ending stocks for wheat as a result of very sluggish export sales.
Net sales of wheat for 23/24, which began on June 1, were 234,800 mt, and a total of 877,400 mt in sales were carried over from the 22/23 marketing year. Exports for the period ending May 31 were 87,300 mt, which brought total exports to 17,758,500 mt and down 5% from the previous year.

Amanda Brill