TFM Midday Update 06-09-2022

CORN

Jul corn up 15 @ 7.80
Corn is higher this morning following good export sales numbers of 11 mb for 21/22, up 51% from the previous week and 19% from the prior 4-week average
Export sales for 22/23 were 2.9 mb, and last week’s export shipments of 54.4 mb were above the 43.4 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 2.500 bb for 21/22
Corn basis is extremely strong in many locations with some 9-dollar cash corn bids reported in the Southern Plains
Ethanol exports rose to the highest level in over 4 years in April at 185.1 million gallons

Jul soybeans up 37 @ 17.77
Soybeans reached a new contract high for July following good export sales number of 15.8 mb for 21/22, up noticeably from the prior week and up 41% from the prior 4-week average
Net sales of 21.9 mb were recorded for 22/23, and last week’s export shipments of 17.5 mb were below the 20.8 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 2.140 bb in 21/22
Private exporters reported sales of 143,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations, with 500 mt for delivery during 21/22, and 142,500 mt for 22/23
Lower crude oil is dragging soybean oil lower, while July meal is up 12.1 at 427.7

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Jul wheat down 11 @ 10.64, Jul KC down 8 @ 11.47, & Jul MNPLS down 8 @ 12.26
Wheat is trading lower following export sales of 16.6 mb, with last week’s export shipments of 7.8 mb below the 14.9 mb needed each week to achieve USDA’s export estimate of 775 mb for 22/23
There remains little chance that an export corridor is opened for Ukraine, but Russia and Turkey are still trying to come to an agreement, pushing wheat lower
Friday’s USDA report may show concerns about the Canadian, US, and European wheat crops
The war in Ukraine, along with adverse weather in North America, may reveal tighter world wheat supplies for 22/23

Jun LC up 0.400 @ 137.225 & Aug FC up 0.450 @ 176.100
Live cattle and feeder cattle are both higher, with strong cash trade and higher corn
Cash traded a dollar higher in the South yesterday at 136 and up 3 to 4 dollars higher for Northern dressed at 226
Asking prices rose today in the South around 138 to 140 and at 228 in the North, fueled by yesterday’s impressive trade
Slaughter pace has been fast and the number of cattle the packer purchased ahead in May has fallen
Choice cuts up 0.32 and select down 0.15
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/8: up 0.19 @ 158.68

Jul hogs down 3.300 @ 104.675 & Jun pork cutout down 2.575 @ 107.475
Hogs are sharply lower today after a 3.36 drop in the cutout, which has been the driving factor in futures
Longs are being liquidated as traders are not confident about a long-term uptrend with weak technical showing on the charts
The weekly export sales were not supportive, with pork sales of 16,700 mt down 48% from the previous week and 44% from the prior 4-week average, with Mexico being the largest buyer at 11,300 mt
National Direct Afternoon report has cash up 0.43
Hog slaughter projected at 475K
CME Lean Hog Index for 6/8: down 0.32 @ 107.48

Amanda Brill