TFM Midday Update 06-09-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower ahead of today’s WASDE report and is also being pressured by rain in the forecast this weekend for the Midwest.
Rain is expected this weekend and early next week for the Corn Belt, but Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio rain totals are only projected to reach an inch or slightly more.
The focus of today’s WASDE report will likely be on corn ending stocks which are expected to increase, and Argentina’s production which the USDA will likely decrease.
Monday’s crop progress will probably show a decline in good to excellent ratings following the dry weather, but ratings could easily jump higher after a week of decent rains.

Soybeans are trading higher after getting a boost from a reported flash sale. Soybean oil is higher and is being supportive while soybean meal is lower.
Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 197,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 22/23 marketing year. The marketing year for soybeans began on September 1.
In today’s WASDE report, traders will focus on production cuts for Argentina with estimates of a 3 mmt decline to 24 mmt. Argentina’s real production will likely be closer to 20 mmt.
Palm oil futures have been a large bearish factor for the soybean oil market and palm oil fell 1.72% today as supplies continue to rise in both Malaysia and Indonesia.

Wheat was mixed this morning, but Chicago has turned lower bringing all three products down for the day. Funds remain short as Russia continues to offer wheat for significantly cheaper cash prices.
The WASDE report estimates from the Dow Jones survey have US wheat ending stocks moving higher by just 8 mb to 606 mb, but adjustments down the line are possible thanks to recent rains.
Russia continues to keep their grip on the export market making sales to Egypt, and there have been reports of Russian offers for August as low as $226/mt FOB Black Sea for 12.5 protein wheat.
French wheat conditions have fallen for two straight weeks and went from 93% good to excellent to 88% due to heat and dryness, and China, Australia, and Argentina are having issues with their wheat crops as well.

Amanda Brill