TFM Midday Update 06-10-2022

CORN

Jul corn down 3 @ 7.70
Corn is lower following bearish CPI data and anticipation of today’s USDA report
Today’s WASDE report should have no changes to supply this month, as the USDA waits for updated acreage at the end of the month
The changes likely to be shown are a possible increase in exports and ethanol
An increase in exports would tighten the 21/22 carryout further at a time where the possibility of Ukraine exporting grain to the world is very much unknown

Jul soybeans down 21 @ 17.48
Soybeans are lower after bearish outside influence from CPI data was released, along with the unknown regarding today’s WASDE report
New crop soybean export commitments at 466.5 mb are the largest on record for the first week of June by 10%
Old crop and new crop board crush spreads remain near three-month lows as the market rations tight remaining supplies
Crude oil is lower today, bringing soybean oil with it and being generally unsupportive of beans

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Jul wheat down 10 @ 10.62, Jul KC down 6 @ 11.48, & Jul MNPLS down 1 @ 12.23
Wheat is lower following poor export sales of 167.4 mb, that is the smallest to start a marketing year since 2018 and the second smallest since 2009 as demand wanes
The winter wheat production report will be the thing to watch, with estimates holding at 1.177 bb vs 1.174 bb last month
Today’s USDA report may show concerns about the Canadian, US, and European wheat crops
There remains little chance that an export corridor is opened for Ukraine, but Russia and Turkey are still trying to come to an agreement, pushing wheat lower

Jun LC down 0.650 @ 136.400 & Aug FC down 0.900 @ 175.125
Live cattle are lower now that cash trade is basically wrapped up for the week and choice cutouts have slipped, with feeder cattle lower as well
The average cash trade in the South was a dollar higher at 136, and in the North, 3 to 4 dollars higher at 225 to 226
Not a whole lot of cash trade took place this week and remaining asking prices in the South are at 138, so the packer may need to get aggressive next week and meet those asking prices
Choice cuts down 0.64 and select up 0.20
Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/9: up 1.12 @ 159.80

Jul hogs up 0.875 @ 105.850 & Jun pork cutout up 0.425 @ 108.450
Hogs are higher, thanks to a big jump in the cutout of 4.62 while cash trade has flagged out for the week
Hog slaughter has been brisk, which should keep supply from backing up and keep the market current
Increasing hog weights are leaving more tonnage available to the market, and yesterday’s poor export numbers have not been supportive
National Direct Afternoon report has cash up 0.43
Hog slaughter projected at 471K
CME Lean Hog Index for 6/10: down 0.32 @ 107.48

Amanda Brill