TFM Midday Update 06-13-2022


  • Jul corn down 8 @ 7.66
  • Heavy selling in the equity markets is driving the grain complex lower this morning as Friday’s CPI data continues to set a bearish tone
  • The aggregate managed fund position across the grain and oilseed space has fallen to the lowest level since January heading into the growing season
  • Seasonality is coming into play as traders look for the seasonal high in corn this month
  • Adverse weather could provide some support as above-normal temperatures are forecast over the next two weeks in the Midwest
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as sellers of 8,074 contracts, reducing their net long position to 184,445 contracts


  • Jul soybeans down 39 @ 17.07
  • Soybeans are taking the brunt of the sell-off this morning after impressive gains last week of 47 cents in Jul
  • The USDA raised 21/22 soybean exports, cutting the carryout to 205 mb, the smallest since 15/16 with 2-1/2 months left in the marketing year
  • Lower crude oil is providing no support to soybean oil, while meal is significantly lower as well
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 6,727 contracts, reducing their net long position to 83,586 contracts


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  • Jul wheat down 4 @ 10.68, Jul KC down 2 @ 11.60, & Jul MNPLS down 6 @ 12.16
  • Wheat was higher in the overnight but succumbed to selling as the market opened
  • The all-wheat carryout projection for 22/23 is 627 mb, which would be the smallest since 13/14 if confirmed
  • The USDA report on Friday had very little for the wheat market with no changes made to demand for 21/22 or 22/23 marketing years
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 2,816 contracts of KC wheat, reducing their net long position to 6,750 contracts, the smallest net long held by funds since July 2021


  • Jun LC down 2.625 @ 133.600 & Aug FC down 3.550 @ 170.925
  • Both live and feeder cattle contracts are sharply lower due to outside bearish inflationary influences that are driving down the equity markets as well
  • Cash trade for last week averaged 136 to 137 in the South, 1 to 2 dollars better than the previous week, while dressed in the North was 3 to 4 dollars higher between 225 and 226
  • Weekly boxed beef was 3.82 higher for choice and 0.41 cents higher for select, ending at 271.32 and 248.89 respectively
  • Choice cuts up 0.22 and select down 0.72
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/10: up 2.07 @ 161.87


  • Jul hogs down 1.200 @ 104.275 & Jun pork cutout down UNCH @ 108.450
  • Hogs are lower along with the rest of the livestock complex, while cash was lower and the cutout mostly unchanged at 7 cents lower
  • Last week’s hog slaughter was only 446k head, compared to 478k head the previous week
  • With such low slaughter numbers, the packer will likely be forced to be more aggressive this week which should drive cash and the cutout higher
  • National Direct Afternoon report has cash down 2.43
  • Hog slaughter projected at 475K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 6/10: down 0.12 @ 107.19


Amanda Brill

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