TFM Midday Update 06-15-2022


  • Jul corn up 7 @ 7.76
  • Corn futures are higher this morning as equity markets move higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike decision, in which many believe could be as high as a 75-basis point increase
  • Macro-economic factors are holding a lot of sway in the ag contracts lately which makes it difficult to assess the underlying fundamentals
  • Heat and dryness are forecast over the Midwest for the next two weeks with temperatures roughly 3 to 4 degrees above normal
  • Basis has strengthened with cash sales having slowed, and the DTN National Corn Basis Index has rallied to 10.7 cents over the board, the highest level since September 2021


  • Jul soybeans down 5 @ 16.94
  • Soybeans and soybean meal are higher, while soybean oil is following crude oil lower
  • After yesterday’s selling, soybean oil closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time since December 31, 2021
  • The July soybean board crush is trading at 70 cents per bushel, just off contract lows and the lowest level on a front month basis since June 2021
  • The Brazilian real has been weak vs the US Dollar Index, encouraging farmer selling in Brazil
  • Private exporters reported the cancellation of sales of 100,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 21/22 marketing year

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  • Jul wheat up 5 @ 10.55Jul KC down 2 @ 11.41, & Jul MNPLS down 4 @ 12.05
  • Wheat opened lower but has gained modestly after President Biden said that the US is working on a plan to get wheat through other countries by rail and that temporary silos will be built on the borders of Ukraine
  • Hot, dry weather the next two weeks in the Southern Plains should allow harvest progress to accelerate with most of Oklahoma cutting, while test cutting is beginning in Kansas
  • Traders continue to wonder how much premium in current prices is due to inflation and what prices might look like if inflation is gotten under control
  • Wheat and crude oil should be good indicators for when inflation concerns have peaked, given the rising interest rate environment


  • Jun LC up 2.275 @ 137.475 Aug FC up 2.125 @ 173.425
  • Cattle are higher following strong cash trade with bids at 138 in the South and talk of regional North trade ranging from 145 to 149
  • Heat has been a supporting factor which caused a 10k head loss in Kansas which represented 8% of yesterday’s kill of 122k head
  • The declining cutout is sparking fears of decreased demand as higher prices impact consumers
  • Choice cuts down 1.10 and select down 0.63
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/14: down 0.11 @ 160.18


  • Jul hogs up 2.125 @ 108.75 & Jul pork cutout up 1.450@ 112.975
  • Hogs are higher thanks to a big jump in cash as the packers aggressively purchased hogs yesterday, but the cutout moved in the other direction and lost 2.71, erasing yesterday’s gain
  • July has taken over as the lead month, carrying a discount to the index
  • Slaughter pace has been lagging with a large revision lower from the original stated number on Monday, and packers will likely not be very aggressive today
  • National Direct Afternoon report has cash up 6.09
  • Hog slaughter projected at 472K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 6/15: up 0.73 @ 108.13



Amanda Brill

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