TFM Midday Update 06-16-2022

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, June 20, 2022, in observance of Juneteenth Day

CORN

Jul corn up 9 @ 7.83
Corn futures are higher this morning with the European weather model showing hot and dry temperatures forecast through the end of the month
Corn net export sales were 5.5 mb for 21/22, a marketing-year low, and down 50% from the previous week and 45% from the prior 4-week moving average
Net sales from 22/23 were 5.5 mb, primarily to Mexico, Japan, and unknown destinations
Weekly ethanol production rose by 21,000 barrels per day to 1.060 million bpd, meeting the level needed to hit the USDA’s estimate

Jul soybeans up 10 @ 17.04
Soybeans are higher despite modest export sales numbers and Brazil taking over as the origin of choice for their cheaper beans
Grain markets, in general, are recovering after yesterday’s Federal Reserve decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points
Net export sales for 21/22 of 11.7 mb were down 26% from the previous week and 16% from the prior 4-week average
Net export sales of 15 mb for 22/23 were primarily to unknown destinations, China, and Japan
Shipments of 26 mb are above the weekly average of 23.8 mb needed to reach 2.170 bb

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Jul wheat up 27 @ 10.77, Jul KC up 20 @ 11.53, & Jul MNPLS up 13 @ 12.14
Wheat is higher following estimates from Ukraine that 5.9 million acres of winter crops will go unharvested due to Russia’s occupation of the country
Weather forecasts show mostly hot and dry conditions as hard red winter harvest expands into Kansas this week
Bangladesh is reported to have canceled its tender for 50,000 mt of milling wheat
Net export sales for 22/23 were 8.7 mb, and last week’s export shipments of 13.6 mb were above the 13.1 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 775 mb

Jun LC down 0.225 @ 137.325 & Aug FC down 2.150 @ 171.125
Live and feeder cattle are lower after posting impressive gains yesterday as cash trade was significantly higher
Packers were aggressive yesterday with cattle in the South trading 2 dollars higher at 139, and Northern dressed 4 dollars higher than last week at 230
Net export sales of 17,400 mt for 2022 were down 2% from last week and 12% from the previous 4-week average
Choice cuts down 1.22 and select down 1.14
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/15: down 0.10 @ 160.08

Jul hogs up 0.825 @ 109.100 & Jul pork cutout up 0.225 @ 113.200
Hog futures are higher after cash held onto its strength from yesterday, while the cutout slipped again by 2.88
July hogs have rebounded near the level where June went off the board, and strong cash this week may indicate increasing demand and tight supply
Slaughter pace may be lower due to a tighter hog supply and not because of lower demand, and the cutout should reflect that
Net export sales of pork were 27,600 mt for 2022 and up 65% from last week and 1% from the prior 4-week average
National Direct Afternoon report has cash up 0.61
Hog slaughter projected at 472K
CME Lean Hog Index for 6/16: up 0.73 @ 108.13

Amanda Brill