TFM Midday Update 06-17-2022

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, June 20, 2022, in observance of Juneteenth Day

CORN

Jul corn up 2 @ 7.90
Corn is higher this morning as weather forecasts show little to no moisture over the next 7 days while temperatures soar into the weekend
Private exporters reported 144,907 mt of corn for delivery to Costa Rica for the 22/23 marketing year and 105,664 mt for delivery to unknown destinations for the 21/22 marketing year
The Seasonal Drought Outlook map shows the Mississippi Valley and Delta with drought to develop this summer with Illinois, most of Iowa, and Eastern Texas drought expanding
Corn has performed well despite bearish outside influences in equity markets, and if inflation concerns remain, commodities should hold value as a store of value

Jul soybeans down 6 @ 17.03
Soybeans opened significantly higher but lost those gains into the trading day and are now modestly lower
Crude oil has dropped sharply lower and taken soybean oil along with it, while meal is higher
New crop export sales are record large at 481.4 mb, besting second place 2013 by 9.2%
Soybean oil is now only holding a 1.21 premium to heating oil vs the 2.40 premium held at the end of May

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Jul wheat down 20 @ 10.58, Jul KC down 19 @ 11.30, & Jul MNPLS down 23 @ 11.86
Wheat is lower this morning as harvest advances in Kansas and into the south-central and the southwest, despite concerns of extreme heat in France, Germany, and Italy
French wheat conditions have declined and are now just 65% good-to-excellent as temperatures rise as high as 104 degrees Fahrenheit today
Private estimates of the European Union wheat crop are being trimmed 4-6 mmt due to record-breaking heat in Spain, France, and Germany
Total commitments of 176.2 mb are down 17% from a year ago which was the second-lowest marketing year total on record

Jun LC up 0.225 @ 137.975 & Aug FC up 1.000 @ 172.300
Cattle are trading higher after strong cash trade 4 dollars higher at 140 in the South, and 4 dollars higher in the North at 230
The heat has contributed to higher prices as packers assess the impact this heat wave is having on cattle, with significant losses reported in Kansas
Boxed beef prices have continued to slide as restaurant traffic slows, impacting food service demand
Choice cuts down 1.06 and select down 0.30
Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/16: up 0.48 @ 160.56

Jul hogs up 1.625 @ 111.200 & Jul pork cutout up 1.450 @ 115.150
Hog futures continue to show strength today after this morning’s cutout saw a gain of 4.04, in addition to a gain of 5.57 on yesterday’s afternoon report
Cash slipped by 2.52, but the cutout has been the main driver of the market and these recent gains have given traders confidence in owning futures
Weekly hog slaughter has been reduced to only 455k head, leaving us to wonder if hog supplies are tighter than anticipated
National Direct Afternoon report has cash down 2.52
Hog slaughter projected at 455K
CME Lean Hog Index for 6/17: up 0.44 @ 108.57

Amanda Brill