TFM Midday Update 06-21-2022


  • Jul corn down 21 @ 7.64
  • Corn is lower this morning after the mostly dry forecast is now showing some relief from the hottest temperatures in the northwestern Corn Belt
  • With wheat prices challenging support and palm oil dropping 21% the last two weeks, the grain sector is starting to show some technical vulnerability
  • Friday’s USDA report showed one bushel of 8.12 corn in Iowa could produce 9.67 worth of ethanol and distiller’s grains, a narrower margin, but still supportive for ethanol production
  • Noncommercial traders continue to hold an extremely large net-long position in corn of nearly 400,000 contracts


  • Jul soybeans down 12 @ 16.89
  • Soybeans are being pressured lower by a 21% drop in palm oil over the past two weeks which puts it at their lowest level in over four months
  • Crude is higher today, but is giving no support to the soy complex, which is lower across the board
  • Friday’s USDA report showed that one bushel of 17.50 soybeans in Illinois could produce 19.81 worth of meal and oil, a margin of 2.31, which is down from 2.70 the previous week
  • In China, September soybeans on the Dalian exchange closed 2.4% lower at the equivalent of $21.12 a bushel


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  • Jul wheat down 30 @ 10.05, Jul KC down 46 @ 10.59, & Jul MNPLS down 38 @ 11.32
  • Wheat is lower as weather forecasts ease the extreme heat later in the week and show some rain on the Canadian side of the border
  • Only 56% of the spring wheat crop is emerged last week in North Dakota and in Montana 30% of the crop was rated poor or very poor
  • Russia’s 2022 wheat crop is now seen at 85.4 million tonnes, up 1.9 million from the prior forecast as spring weather has been favorable
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed little change is speculative holdings for KC wheat, even as prices have neared important levels of support


  • Jun LC up 0.050 @ 138.075 & Aug FC up 2.275 @ 175.225
  • Live cattle are slightly higher this morning, while feeder cattle are higher following a drop in corn
  • Cash average 4 dollars higher than the previous week in both the North and South last week, and the packer is likely to be aggressive again this week
  • Slaughter pace has been strong, and supply is tight which leaves the packer with less bargaining power
  • Choice cuts down 0.90 and select up 1.15
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/17: up 1.61 @ 162.17


  • Jul hogs up 1.000 @ 112.000 & Jul pork cutout up 0.325 @ 115.500
  • Hogs are higher thanks to more strength in the cutout which was 3.25 higher on Friday which has been supportive to the nearby months
  • July futures were up over 5 dollars last week as traders became more aggressive to get long the market as demand increases into July 4 weekend
  • National Direct Afternoon report has cash down 1.62
  • Hog slaughter projected at 473K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 6/21: up 0.41 @ 109.16


Amanda Brill

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