TFM Midday Update 06-21-2023


  • Corn is trading significantly higher and has only faded slightly from this morning’s highs after yesterday’s crop progress showed continued deterioration of the crop.
  • December corn traded at its highest levels in 7 months earlier this morning after crop progress showed good to excellent ratings in corn falling to 55% from 61% last week, far worse than analyst expectations.
  • The 7-day forecast still looks dry for the I-states and conditions are reportedly the worst since 1988. The NOAA has indicated that 6-15 inches of rain would be needed to move out of drought in eastern Nebraska.
  • The subsoil moisture in Illinois was revealed to be 85% short to very short, which is 9 points higher than the drought year of 2012.


  • Soybeans are higher today with support from big gains in soybean meal, but lower soybean oil after the EPA’s biofuel mandate announcement showed lower requirements for the coming years.
  • Soybean good to excellent ratings fell to 54% from 59% last week and compared to 68% at this time a year ago. The poor to very poor rating for the crop also increased by 3 points to 12%.
  • The 10-day forecast is dry for the Corn Belt with temperatures higher than average, and Illinois and Michigan have subsoil moisture levels recorded at 83% and 89% respectively.
  • Soybean inspections were poor for last week at just 6.8 mb, which put total inspections down 4% from a year ago. Brazil is in control of the soybean market now, and their soy sales to China have increased by 40% from a year ago.


  • US winter wheat harvest is 15% complete vs 8% last week. However, this is behind the average of 20%, as rainfall in the southern Plains is delaying harvest.
  • Spring wheat was rated 51% good to excellent vs 60% last week (and 59% last year). Winter wheat condition was left unchanged from last week at 38% good to excellent.
  • Export inspections were delayed until after yesterday’s close. Wheat inspections of 8.7 mb brings total 23/24 inspections to 20 mb (which is down 44% from last year).
  • The US Dollar Index has moved lower for the day, which is offering some support to wheat, but exports are still a challenge as Russia continues to undercut the market with cheap wheat.


Brandon Doherty

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