TFM Midday Update 06-22-2022


  • Jul corn up 9 @ 7.69
  • July corn is higher this morning, while deferred months are lower following a drop in good-to-excellent ratings to 70% from 72% last week
  • Weather forecasts show temperature moderation over the next seven days in central US, the Delta and southern Midwest are still expected to have extreme temperatures with little rain
  • The corn basis is at historically high levels with end users in the western Plains have said to have paid as much as 1.56 over July futures to secure supplies
  • Funds were liquidating long positions yesterday with open interest down by nearly 17,000 contracts


  • Jul soybeans down 10 @ 16.71
  • The soy complex is being driven lower again today, while crude oil is facing heavy selling, and palm oil fell another 9.8% yesterday as recession fears intensify
  • Soybean planting is 94% completed with 83% of the crop emerged, and a good-to-excellent rating of 68%, down from 70% last week
  • Ag Rural reported an increase in Brazil’s crop by 2.3 mmt to a record 126.8 mmt
  • Chinese imports have slowed down to 7.79 mmt for May from 9.23 mmt a year ago


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  • Jul wheat up 24 @ 10.00, Jul KC up 19 @ 10.60, & Jul MNPLS up 4 @ 11.21
  • Wheat is higher this morning following the news that Russia attacked a major grain terminal in Mykolayiv, Ukraine
  • Funds were liquidating long positions yesterday after rain was forecast this week across the Canadian Prairies, which is especially needed in Alberta and Saskatchewan
  • Spring wheat in Montana received a good-to-excellent rating of 25%, up 10% from the previous week, while the national average was 59%, up 5%
  • The USDA said that 25% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested, above the 5-year average pace of 22% for this time of year


  • Jun LC down 0.775 @ 137.050 & Aug FC down 1.175 @ 174.125
  • Live and feeder cattle are lower as the packer bids 137 in the South, which are being passed, with average asking prices around 142
  • Slaughter pace has been brisk, which keeps the packer buying cattle, as feedlots have higher show lists
  • Feeder cattle were higher on lower corn, but as corn begins to firm today, feeders have lost that support
  • Choice cuts up 1.06 and select up 0.31
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/21: up 2.86 @ 165.03


  • Jul hogs down 0.600 @ 112.125 & Jul pork cutout down 0.900 @ 114.250
  • Hog futures are modestly lower after the cutouts lost 1.01, while cash is significantly higher after a day of aggressive purchasing by the packer
  • July put in the highest close since April 28, but slaughter pace is lagging with a revision to Monday’s slaughter being 18,000 head less than initially stated
  • The strengthening cutout should continue to provide support to the hog market as supplies are tight
  • National Direct Afternoon report has cash up 4.11
  • Hog slaughter projected at 473K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 6/22: up 1.29 @ 110.45


Amanda Brill

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