TFM Midday Update 06-22-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower today due to profit taking and an updated 7-day weather forecast that shows increased chances of rain in Iowa.
The recent drop in corn conditions over the past three weeks will likely force the USDA to lower yields on the July WASDE report and therefore, ending stocks.
Exports have been stale as US competitiveness weakens due to high prices, especially as Brazil is slated to harvest a big second crop corn.
Today’s drought monitor is expected to show drought expanding even more, and crop conditions haven’t been this poor since the drought year of 1988.

Soybeans are under pressure today as both soy products fall sharply driven by soybean oil after yesterday’s EPA announcement. All three soy products have expanded limits after soybean oil closed limit down.
The new RFS mandates for 2024 and 2025 show that we would have less soybean processing demand for soybean oil to be used in renewable diesel production.
Argentina has become the second largest buyer of Brazilian soy products this year behind China after their drought severely impacted their crop, which they need to meet crush expectations.
Additional pressure has come from the Federal Reserve indicating that further rate hikes would be likely this year.

Wheat has been trading either side of unchanged so far this morning, but is currently lower, along with both corn and soybeans.
The Russian wheat crop has also been cut by 1.2 mmt for 2023 due to dry conditions in main growing regions and poor soil moisture.
India’s wheat output for 2023 is at least 10% lower than the government’s estimate, which has caused a sharp increase in local prices over the past two months.
Globally, wheat crops may be in trouble as conditions worsen in major wheat growing areas such as the US, Russia, Argentina, and China.

Amanda Brill