TFM Midday Update 06-23-2023

CORN

Corn is trading sharply lower after weather models overnight shifted to push rain into Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana over the weekend.
Both the 6–10-day forecast, and 8-14 day are now showing above average precipitation, as well as normal temperatures, which would bring milder and wetter conditions into July.
While corn is down significantly, it did find support at the 200-day moving average and bounced off of it to a few cents higher.
Between June and July in 2012, the USDA lowered corn yield by 20 bu. and if it were to happen this year, there are concerns that it would put yield below 170 and take nearly 1 billion bushels from this year’s production.

Soybeans are trading lower with losses primarily in the deferred contracts as soybean meal falls over 4% in the Dec contract, but soybean oil recovers slightly despite losses in crude oil.
New crop soybeans have fallen over 72 cents in the past two days from Wednesday’s high after funds began profit taking and weather forecasts have changed to be wetter over the next two weeks.
Palm oil rose by 1.74% today, which has given some support to soybean oil after its sharp selloff due to the EPA biofuel mandate.
The weekly drought monitor has shown that 57% of the soybean crop is now considered to be in drought, and in 2012, that number was 43% this time of year, but new forecasts are showing more promise for rain in July.

Wheat has been following movements in corn and, therefore, is lower today as wetter forecasts pressure corn futures.
The Russian wheat crop has also been cut by 1.2 mmt for 2023 due to dry conditions in main growing regions and poor soil moisture.
India’s wheat output for 2023 is at least 10% lower than the government’s estimate, which has caused a sharp increase in local prices over the past 2 months.
It is now appearing very unlikely that Russia will renew the Black Sea grain deal on July 18 unless their demands are met. Recently, news out of the Black Sea region has not had much influence on the markets.

Amanda Brill