TFM Midday Update 06-27-2022

CORN

Jul corn down 8 @ 7.43
Corn is lower alongside wheat this morning as temperatures in the US remain more modest but still relatively dry
July corn is one of the only grain contracts to hold above its 100-day moving average as commercial demand for old crop remains strong
In China, September corn fell to a new three-month low last week, potentially in anticipation of imports from Brazil, and ended today at the equivalent of $10.63 a bushel
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds liquidating nearly 20,000 contracts, decreasing their net long position to 380,169 contracts

Jul soybeans up 17 @ 16.28
Soybeans are higher with July leading the way after the Crush report from the USDA showed that the combined value of meal and oil in Illinois exceeded the cost of a bushel of soybeans by 2.81 a bushel, a 50-cent gain from the previous week
Commercial demand for old crop soybeans is increasing as crush premiums incentives processors
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as sellers of around 3,000 contracts reducing their net long position to 178,379 contracts

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Jul wheat down 2 @ 9.22, Jul KC down 5 @ 9.88, & Jul MNPLS down 9 @ 10.61
Chicago and KC wheat are mostly unchanged while Minn wheat is lower as Russia estimates a large crop in their country
World wheat supplies remain in a dire situation with Russia continuing attacks on Ukraine and hit both Kyiv and Odesa again over the weekend
In the US, HRW wheat harvest is progressing but expected to come in 7% smaller than a year ago, and spring wheat planting estimates will be released on Thursday
Funds were sellers of wheat last week with the CFTC data showing liquidation of over 1,000 contracts reducing their net long position to 19,067 contracts

Jun LC up 0.250 @ 135.600 & Aug FC up 1.650 @ 174.125
Both live cattle and feeder cattle are higher this morning after a neutral to slightly friendly Cattle on Feed Report that showed the on feed number slightly below estimates at 101%, placements lower than estimates at 98%, and marketings 1% below estimates at 102%
Cash trade wrapped up for last week at 138 in the South, which was steady, and 234 in the North which was 4 dollars better than the previous week
Choice cuts up 0.32 and select up 0.08
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/24: down 1.52 @ 165.23

Jul hogs up 0.525 @ 111.450 & Jul pork cutout up 0.300 @ 112.150
Nearby hog futures are higher this morning while deferred contracts are lower following a drop in cash but an increase in the cutout by 2.43
Slow slaughter pace has been an ongoing issue with slaughter on Friday 25k head less than the previous week and 10k head less than a year ago
The question remains if higher hog weights are providing that much more tonnage or if supplies are tighter than expected
National Direct Afternoon report has cash down 0.59
Hog slaughter projected at 463K
CME Lean Hog Index for 6/27: up 0.22 @ 110.69

Amanda Brill