TFM Midday Update 06-28-2022

CORN

Jul corn up 17 @ 7.61
Corn along with the rest of the grain complex is higher today as buying resumes and China reportedly begins to relax Covid restrictions increasing demand
US corn inspections yesterday were decent at 49 mb, but total inspections of 1.867 bb are still down 17% from a year ago
The national corn condition rating fell to 67% good-to-excellent from 70% last week as hotter temperatures and dry conditions took a toll on the crop

Jul soybeans up 26 @ 16.56
All three soy products are higher today as lower prices triggered buying, bringing July soybeans back above the 100-day moving average
Soybean crop conditions fell to 65% good-to-excellent vs 68% expected, and 68% last week, with the largest drops in Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Indiana, and Ohio
Soybean export inspections totaled 17.2 mb vs the 23.9 mb needed weekly to hit the USDA forecast, and total inspections of 1.887 bb are down 10.4% from a year ago

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Jul wheat up 16 @ 9.20, Jul KC up 9 @ 9.82, & Jul MNPLS up 3 @ 10.44
All three wheat contracts are higher, led by Chicago after a head and shoulders formation on the chart has been completed and funds step up and resume buying
More bullishness came from importers announcing tender business overnight coming from Egypt, Taiwan, Jordan, and Bangladesh
Crop progress for spring wheat conditions came in at 59% good-to-excellent vs 60% expected and 59% last week
Winter wheat harvest was pegged at 41% complete vs 35% average, with KC at 59% complete vs 40% average

Jun LC up 0.425 @ 136.675 & Aug FC down 1.625 @ 172.500
Live cattle are higher while feeder cattle are lower as corn begins to rebound today
Cash trade is not established yet but asking prices in the South are starting out around 140, and the packer will likely need to be aggressive as they don’t have much purchased ahead
Strong boxed beef yesterday may be indicating renewed demand interest as grilling season is underway and consumers adjust to inflation
Choice cuts up 3.70 and select up 0.22
Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/27: down 0.62 @ 163.09

Jul hogs down 0.200 @ 109.975 & Jul pork cutout down 0.525 @ 110.750
Hogs are only slightly lower after cash dipped hard yesterday and the cutout lost 3.17 as trade remains quiet ahead of the Hogs and Pigs report
The average estimate is for all hogs and pigs at 99.3%, kept for breeding at 98.8%, and kept for marketing at 99.3%
The packer has continued to obtain hogs with ease but may be more aggressive today with lower cash providing buying opportunities
National Direct Afternoon report has cash down 5.10
Hog slaughter projected at 456K
CME Lean Hog Index for 6/28: up 0.44 @ 111.35

Amanda Brill