TFM Midday Update 06-28-2023

CORN

Private exporters reported sales of 170,706 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico, with 21,340 mt for delivery during the 22/23 marketing year and 149,366 during 23/24.
The weather forecast for some of the drier areas of the Midwest has relief over the next 10-14 days, and this is continuing to weigh on the grain complex.
July corn futures are holding together better than new crop, suggesting that domestic supply is still tight for old crop.
On Friday, traders will receive the quarterly stocks and acreage reports. The average pre-report estimate for Friday’s data has corn acreage at 91.809 million vs 91.996 in March. The stocks number is expected to come in at 4,261 mb compared to 7,401 in March.

For the month of June, soybean oil has rallied from about 45 cents to 60 cents per pound. But this morning both meal and oil are down, which could account for the sharp decline in soybean futures.
The market seems more focused on the rain forecast and drop in export demand, compared to the reduction in crop ratings for soybeans (and corn too).
ABIOVE, which is Brazil’s oilseed group, increased their estimate of Brazilian soy exports by 1.3 mmt to a record 97.3 mmt.
On Friday, the trade is looking for soybean acres at 87.660 million, vs 87.505 in March. The stocks number for soybeans is anticipated to be 808 mb vs 1,685 in March.

Over the past week, 2 cargoes of wheat (and 5 cargoes of corn) left Ukrainian ports headed for Europe and China.
Winter wheat harvest continues but remains well behind the average pace. With more rain on the way, it may delay harvest even further. However, the moisture should improve spring wheat conditions in the northern US.
The Ukraine Grain Traders Union is reportedly estimating their wheat crop at 24.4 mmt (vs lower estimates ranging from 16-18 mmt)
On Friday, traders are looking for all wheat acreage at 49.647 million acres, vs 49.855 in March. The stocks number for wheat is expected to come in at 611 mb, vs 946 in March.

Brandon Doherty