TFM Midday Update 06-29-2022

CORN

  • Jul corn up 10 @ 7.70
  • Today is first notice day for July corn, which is significantly higher, while deferred months are modestly lower, and September will take over as the front month tomorrow
  • The five-day forecast shows rain with above normal temperatures in the Corn Belt, with triple digit readings as far North as South Dakota before turning milder over the weekend
  • Production estimates out of Brazil are in record territory of 4.5 bb, and Brazilian September corn futures have fallen to their lowest prices in two months thanks to harvest pressure
  • The Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report will be released tomorrow and are expected to show near 90 million acres planted and 4.33 bb of June 1 corn stocks

SOYBEANS

  • Jul soybeans up 16 @ 16.79
  • All three soy products are higher again today, with first notice day for July powering front months higher, as well as deferred months
  • Crude oil is higher for the 4th day in a row ,which has provided support to soybean oil, which has followed it closely
  • Tomorrow’s acreage report may show soybean acres exceeding corn for the first time since 1983, as soybean meal remains a key feed ingredient
  • On Monday, July soybean meal broke to a new two-month high and continues to rise into expiration

 

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WHEAT

  • Jul wheat down 3 @ 9.18Jul KC up 1 @ 9.85, & Jul MNPLS down 6 @ 10.29
  • Chicago wheat is lower this morning, while KC and MPLS hold on to small gains as trade is quiet ahead of tomorrow’s acreage report
  • Russia is on track for a record winter wheat crop, but conditions there have turned drier, and Europe’s crop is expected to be a bit smaller this year, limited by drought
  • If the USDA estimates less than 11.02 million acres of spring wheat plantings tomorrow, it will be the smallest area since 1972

CATTLE

  • Jun LC up 0.075 @ 136.375 & Aug FC down 1.100 @ 170.725
  • Front month live cattle are gaining today as expiration for June is tomorrow, while deferred months are lower, and feeder cattle lower as well with corn showing some strength
  • Cash should be steady to better with not much trade established and asking prices in the South at 140, and feedlots in the North not yet revealing any offers
  • China has been a major buyer of US beef this year, and the relaxation of Covid restrictions should increase that demand
  • Choice cuts down 1.54 and select down 1.93
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/28: up 1.11 @ 164.20

HOGS

  • Jul hogs down 0.575 @ 109.350 & Jul pork cutout UNCH @ 110.750
  • Front month hogs are trading slightly lower, while deferred months are higher despite a gain in cash, but a drop of 3.56 in the cutout
  • Trade is quiet in front of the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which will be released at 2 pm Central, and the average estimate is for all hogs and pigs at 99.3%, kept for breeding at 98.8%, and kept for marketing at 99.3%
  • China is relaxing their Covid restrictions, which should improve export demand
  • National Direct Afternoon report has cash up 4.65
  • Hog slaughter projected at 468K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 6/29: up 0.29 @ 111.64

Author

Amanda Brill

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