TFM Midday Update 07-01-2022

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, July 4, 2022, in observance of Independence Day


  • Jul corn up 13 @ 7.57
  • Corn is lower as better weather forecasts keep buyers at bay, and did not get any support from a mostly neutral Stocks and Acreage report yesterday
  • With equity markets diving and inflation scaring speculators out of the commodity markets, open interest in corn is now the lowest level since January 12, 2017
  • Yesterday’s Stocks report was a non-event with stocks at 4.346 bb, in line with estimates, and estimated corn acres at 89.921 million acres vs 89.861 expected


  • Jul soybeans down 40 @ 16.35
  • Soybeans are sharply lower despite a friendly stocks and acreage report yesterday, showing the fund’s relentless liquidating, even in the face of bullish news
  • Trade was looking for a record large soy planting number of 90.4 million acres, but the USDA reported just 88.3 million acres, down 2.7 million acres from March intentions
  • With soy stocks very tight, the report should have produced a bullish move, but lagging export sales and improved weather spurred funds to liquidate
  • The June 1 soy stocks number of 971 mb was slightly higher than trade estimates, but most of the beans were on farm, up 51% from a year ago


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  • Jul wheat down 28 @ 8.41, Jul KC down 40 @ 9.08, & Jul MNPLS down 30 @ 9.58
  • Wheat continues its trajectory lower as better weather conditions spur fund selling across the grain complex
  • The USDA pegged “other spring” wheat acres at 11.110 million vs 11.200 million in March, which was more than expected given the planting delays across the northern Plains
  • Total open interest in Chicago wheat is now down to the lowest level since 2005
  • Wheat futures have now removed the entire Ukraine-Russia premium that was put into place following the invasion last month, as speculative traders decide that wheat does not deserve such a high risk premium


  • Aug LC up 2.775 @ 135.350 & Aug FC up 1.325 @ 174.950
  • Both live and feeder cattle contracts are higher this morning with live cattle leading the way and feeders boosted by lower corn
  • Cash trade is relatively quiet as most of the business is done for the week and marked mostly at 138 in the South, steady to a dollar lower, and 234 in the North, steady with last week
  • Weakness in corn should provide better margins for beef production and may allow feedlots more confidence for higher cash next week
  • Choice cuts down 0.88 and select down 0.24
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 119K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/30: up 2.36 @ 166.44


  • Jul hogs up 0.950 @ 110.125 & Jul pork cutout down 0.200 @ 110.400
  • Hogs are higher this morning despite a drop in cash and the cutout being down 1.31 yesterday afternoon at 107.25
  • Projected slaughter has been revised to be significantly lower than previously reported by 42k head as slaughter paces continue to lag
  • Tight hog supplies and good export numbers yesterday are giving traders more confidence to be long hogs
  • National Direct Afternoon report has cash down 2.27
  • Hog slaughter projected at 426K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 7/1: down 0.42 @ 110.84


Amanda Brill

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