TFM Midday Update 07-06-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

 

CORN

  • Sep corn down 8 @ 5.84
  • Corn crop rated 64% good to excellent (vs 67% last week)
  • Large fund selloff yesterday contributed to weakness in the marketplace
  • Talk of recession is increasing (and possibly an economic depression)
  • Weather forecast suggests warmer and drier conditions in the western Midwest next week (but northern and eastern areas will see normal temps and precipitation)
  • Corn futures are very oversold technically

SOYBEANS

  • Sep soybeans down 14 @ 13.23
  • Soybean crop rated 63% good to excellent (vs 65% last week)
  • Chinese Dalian soybean oil futures were down about 7% yesterday
  • After such a strong selloff, traders may buy back in on the price break
  • Soybeans have expanded limits today to $1.75
  • Rumors are that China canceled 5-8 cargoes of old crop U.S. soybeans recently

 

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WHEAT

  • Sep wheat down 19 @ 7.88, Sep KC down 26 @ 8.36, & Sep MNPLS down 17 @ 8.73
  • Winter wheat crop rated 31% good to excellent (vs 30% last week)
  • Winter wheat is 54% harvested vs 41% last week
  • Spring wheat crop rated 66% good to excellent (vs 59% last week)
  • Ukraine is getting a little more moisture but parts of southern Russia are dry
  • The U.S. Dollar Index is at the highest level since 2002
  • Stats Canada is estimating all wheat acres at 25.4 million (vs 23.5 ma last year)

CATTLE

  • Aug LC up 1.075 @ 134.000 & Aug FC up 0.175 @ 172.875
  • Packers may hold out, as they already have some cattle forward contracted
  • August live cattle remain at a significant discount to cash
  • There is concern that cattle have not found much strength, despite lower corn prices
  • Slowing consumer demand is a concern
  • Choice cuts up 0.84 and select down 0.60
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 7/5: down 0.33 @ 165.34

HOGS

  • Jul hogs up 2.025 @ 114.175 & Jul pork cutout up 0.850 @ 113.100
  • Despite mostly lower markets, nearby hogs held up yesterday
  • Cutouts gained 5.73 yesterday
  • Chinese hog futures are down 5%
  • Retail outlets may need to restock after good movement over the 4th of July weekend
  • National Direct Afternoon report increased 6.24
  • Hog slaughter projected at 465K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 7/6: down 0.12 @ 110.58

Author

Brandon Doherty

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