TFM Midday Update 07-06-2023


  • Corn is trading higher at midday as weather forecasts are becoming questionable and the drought monitor is not showing as much relief as had been hoped after recent rains.
  • The northern Corn Belt is expected to receive less rainfall than hoped over the next 7 days, but the southern half of the Corn Belt is forecast to receive beneficial rains.
  • National soil moisture remains an issue with 48% short to very short. Missouri is at 83%, Wisconsin at 71%, and Illinois and Michigan both at 67%.
  • Brazil has reportedly harvested 20% of their second crop corn and based on yield data, analysts raised production estimates again.


  • Soybeans are trading lower today, along with both soybean meal and oil after futures became a bit too overbought, and funds are likely taking a breather.
  • Brazilian FOB offers are now at over a dollar discount to US values and will be there for the next few months making export sales even more difficult for the US.
  • Brazil’s export group, ANEC, reported that June soy exports rose to 9.44 mmt, which compares with 7 mmt in June of last year.
  • The USDA’s forecast for 83.5 million acres of beans has kept prices elevated, and next week’s WASDE could add to the bullishness with a small ending stocks number.


  • Wheat is still mixed with Chicago posting the most losses followed by KC, but Minn wheat is managing to stay slightly higher.
  • Russia attacked the city of Lviv overnight and Ukrainian forces have said that Russia is making slow progress in taking back eastern Ukraine.
  • Russia’s wheat crop estimates were raised by 2.5 mmt and are now at 85.7 mmt on good weather.
  • The French 2023 soft wheat yield is seen at 5% above the 10-year average and was helped by good sowing conditions and frequent rains in early spring.


Amanda Brill

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