CORN
- The USDA reported an increase of 9.9 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 16.5 mb for 23/24.
- Private exporters reported sales of 180,000 tons of US corn sold to Mexico.
- The 6-10 day forecast has some decent rain for parts of the west-central Corn Belt. The 8-14 day map has that weather shifting more to the East, into the Tennessee / Ohio river valley.
- Ethanol data yesterday showed higher production, lower stocks, and improved margins (due to lower corn prices).
- Next week’s WASDE report on July 12th is likely to show a reduction in the corn yield estimate. The question is how much of an impact this will have given the higher acreage estimate last week.
SOYBEANS
- The USDA reported an increase of 6.9 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 21.8 mb of 23/24.
- Soybean meal is lower this morning – a lower close would mark the fourth day in a row. This is putting pressure on soybean futures. Palm oil futures are trending lower as well, not helping the situation.
- About 60% of the US soybean crop is still said to be experiencing drought, despite the drought monitor showing some slight improvements.
- September soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are trading around the equivalent of $17.04 per bushel.
WHEAT
- The USDA reported an increase of 14.9 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and a decrease of 0.1 mb of 24/25.
- More rain for the southern Plains will slow HRW wheat harvest, which is already well behind the average pace. However, slow export demand means that the market will likely not respond much to this.
- Despite weakness in the wheat market, ending stocks are at the lowest level in 16 years, which should provide some support.
- French wheat harvest is said to be 10% complete with better than expected yields so far.
- The presidents of both Ukraine and Turkey will be meeting to discuss an extension of the Black Sea grain deal. This is despite Russia’s recent statements that they will not extend the corridor again.
Author
Amanda Brill