TFM Midday Update 07-08-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday after last week’s light volume holiday trade saw prices end slightly higher for the week. Over the weekend, forecasts began to show remnants of hurricane Beryl headed to the eastern Corn Belt where they will improve chances of rain.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 135,636 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 50,800 metric tons is for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year and 84,836 metric tons is for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and expectations are that the good to excellent ratings for the corn crop will improve slightly thanks to the recent favorable weather.

Soybeans are trading sharply lower today due to the improved weather forecast that is also pressuring corn. Last week, prices moved higher on low volume due to the holiday, but those gains are being given back. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
The bullish story in the soy complex has been the improving crush margins that have fueled domestic demand for processors and have also triggered the bull spreading between the August front month and the November contracts as cash soybeans are in demand.
The CFTC data was delayed due to the holiday and will be out later this afternoon, but it is estimated that funds hold a net short position of 119,000 contracts of soybeans and 74,000 contracts of bean oil. They are also estimated to be long over 80,000 contracts of soybean meal.

All three classes of wheat are trading lower today with KC wheat down the hardest followed by Chicago. There has been a combination of harvest pressure, improved estimated yields, and a better Russian crop than thought a month ago.
Ukraine has reportedly harvested 1.62 mmt of wheat as of July 5 and was harvested over 482,200 hectares of land according to the Agriculture Ministry. The country had only harvested 172,000 mt of wheat last year at this time.
Adding to the pressure, Russian wheat export FOB values are said to have fallen to $221 to $225 per mt. Also, with SovEcon recently increasing their estimate of the Russian wheat crop from 80.7 to 84.1 mmt on better-than-expected yields, this could keep a lid on rising wheat futures prices.

Amanda Brill