CORN

• Corn markets turn higher at midday, following contract lows set overnight. The September contract dipped below the key $4.00 mark, highlighting ongoing pressure in the market. Traders continue to struggle to find support amid a strong harvest in South America and favorable early conditions for the U.S. crop.
• The South American corn crop continues to thrive, adding further pressure to global prices. IMEA has raised its corn production estimate for Brazil’s, Mato Grosso, to 54 million metric tons, up from 50.4 million just last month.
• The USDA rated the U.S. corn crop 74% good to excellent as of Monday—the highest rating for this time of year since 2018. Current crop conditions point toward a potentially strong fall harvest. The USDA also estimates that U.S. farmers have planted 95.2 million acres of corn in 2025, marking the largest planted area in 12 years.
• Markets are looking ahead to Friday’s USDA Supply and Demand report, with expectations for slight reductions in both old and new crop corn ending stocks. Old crop ending stocks are projected at 1.342 billion bushels, down from 1.365 billion last month. New crop stocks are estimated at 1.733 billion bushels, a slight decrease from 1.750 billion previously.
• Ethanol production rebounded this week to 319 million gallons, up from 316 million the previous week and 3% higher year-over-year. The increase exceeded market expectations and is running ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA’s corn usage estimate. This week, 108 million bushels of corn were used in ethanol production.

SOYBEANS

• The soybean market continues its downward trend at midday, with the entire soy complex trading lower. Traders remain cautious as they look ahead to Friday’s July USDA Supply and Demand report, which could further influence price direction. Uncertainty around demand and updated production estimates is keeping pressure on the market.
• Ahead of Friday’s USDA report, analysts expect old crop soybean ending stocks to rise slightly to 358 million bushels, up from 350 million last month. New crop stocks are also projected higher at 304 million bushels, compared to 295 million previously. Global soybean ending stocks are not expected to change significantly, while Brazil and Argentina bean production estimates are seen ticking slightly higher from last month.
• Unconfirmed reports suggest the U.S. may be working on a new trade agreement with India that could include imports of non-GMO U.S. soybeans. While the development could open a new export market for U.S. producers, the White House has not yet confirmed the report.
• With favorable weather across key U.S. growing regions and ongoing tariff-related trade uncertainties, bearish sentiment continues to dominate the soybean market. At present, there are few fundamental or technical drivers to support a rally—barring a significant surprise in Friday’s USDA report.

WHEAT

• Wheat futures have turned mixed at midday as ongoing trade negotiations progress and harvest activity continues across the U.S., Black Sea region, and EU. The market is expected to remain under pressure in the near term due to the ample global supply from these harvests.
• The winter wheat harvest continues to advance, with 82% complete in Kansas. However, progress in Nebraska remains slow, at just 22% complete, as ongoing rains are causing delays and interruptions.
• U.S. winter wheat conditions remain slightly weaker compared to last year. Production for 2025 is projected at 1.903 billion bushels, down from 1.971 billion bushels in 2024, reflecting some ongoing challenges in key growing areas.
• Alongside a smaller overall U.S. wheat crop, Montana’s wheat crop is struggling due to drought conditions. The USDA reports that 37% of Montana’s spring wheat is rated poor to very poor, highlighting the impact of insufficient rainfall on crop health.

Author

Lauren VandenLangenberg