TFM Midday Update 07-10-2023


  • Correction to morning comments – a reduction in corn acres was inadvertently mentioned. On the June 30th report, corn acres were increased  by roughly 2 million.
  • The weather forecast for the next 10 days is drier for much of the western Corn Belt, but there could be showers farther to the East (including central Illinois).
  • Given the weather so far, this growing season, many believe that the USDA could reduce their corn yield estimate on this Wednesday’s WASDE report.
  • China is said to be experiencing dryness and elevated temperatures, which could reduce their crops.
  • July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa exchange is near the equivalent of $4.64 per bushel, keeping pressure on US exports.


  • Soybeans are sharply higher this morning, possibly in anticipation of friendly data on Wednesday’s USDA report. Traders expect 23/24 carryout to fall near to 200 mb.
  • Both soybean oil and palm oil are higher, offering support to soybeans. Bean oil may be rallying due to the anticipated increase in biofuel demand, while palm oil saw lower production and higher exports in June.
  • Crop conditions may be improving due to recent rain in eastern areas, including central Illinois, and parts of Nebraska and Indiana.
  • Funds remain net long soybeans, meal, and oil as of July 3rd.


  • Canda is seeing drier than normal conditions that will likely impact the spring wheat crop. Globally, there could be lower production in Russia and northern China as well.
  • Wheat has traded both sides of steady so far today, but weakness may stem from lower Matif futures. Paris milling wheat is on track for what will be the third lower close in a row.
  • Expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is next week. There is still much uncertainty of what will happen, given the fact that Russia has said they see no reason for an extension, but Turkey is trying to encourage an agreement.
  • As of July 3rd, managed funds remain net short 56,000 contracts of Chicago wheat.


Brandon Doherty

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