TFM Midday Update 07-11-2023

CORN

The USDA rated the corn crop at 55% good to excellent (up 4% from last week). Despite the increase, this is still the worst rating for this time of year since 2012.
The average pre-report estimate for US corn production is 15.149 bb, with a yield of 175.8 bpa.
Tomorrow’s report may reflect a boost in Brazil corn production, with traders looking for a crop of 132.8 mmt.
December corn is building technical support around the $4.90-$5.00 level, but the improving crop conditions could limit upside potential.
On tomorrow’s report, 2023 corn carryout is expected to come in around 2.2 bb.

The USDA rated the soybean crop at 51% good to excellent (up 1% from last week). Like corn, this is the poorest rating for this time period since 2012.
The average pre-report estimate for US soybean production is 4.250 bb, with a yield of 51.4 bpa.
Yesterday’s close in soybean oil was the highest so far this year, likely due to influence from palm oil as well as anticipated demand for biofuels.
Over the next 10 days, Minnesota, the Dakotas, Wisconsin, and northern Iowa are all expected to be mostly dry.
Tomorrow’s report is expected to show a drop in 2023 soybean carryout to around 200 mb.

The USDA said only 46% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested (vs 59% average). Winter wheat condition was unchanged at 40% good to excellent.
The USDA rated the spring wheat crop at 47% good to excellent (down 1% from last week)
Spring wheat areas in the northern US remain in need of moisture, but not much is expected this week.
Reportedly, interior Russian wheat prices have rallied, but they are still offering wheat for export at $235-$240 per metric ton FOB.
According to CONAB, 79.6% of Brazil’s wheat crop has been planted as of July 1st.

Brandon Doherty