TFM Midday Update 07-11-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher at midday as prices rebound from the lower start to the week across the grain complex. Export sales were soft today, but futures have been oversold and funds are likely taking profits on a portion of their short positions ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 21.2 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 4.6 mb for 24/25. This was up 51% from last week but down 13% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 34.6 mb were above the 33.2 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
This morning, CONAB updated its estimates for Brazilian corn production and increased the number to 115.86 mmt which compares to 114.14 mmt last month. This is still well below last year’s production of 131.89 mmt, and this year’s estimate is still below the USDA’s estimate.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday but have backed off slightly from the earlier morning highs. Exports were on the softer side again this week. Soybean meal is mixed with the front months slightly higher and deferred contracts lower. Soybean oil is leading soybeans higher today.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase in soybean export sales of 7.6 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 7.0 mb for 24/25. This was down 9% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 9.8 mb were below the 14.3 mb needed each week, and primary destinations were to the Netherlands, Indonesia, and Japan.
This morning, CONAB released its July estimates for Brazil’s soybean production but made few changes. Production was called at 147.34 mmt compared to 147.35 mmt last month. This compares to 154.61 mmt last year.

All three wheat classes are trading higher at midday with KC leading the way up. There is likely some short covering ahead of tomorrow’s report, but CPI data that was released today showed inflation easing which is likely supporting the grain complex as a whole today.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 8.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 which was below the range of trade estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 10.8 mb were below the 15.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates, and primary destinations were to Japan, South Korea, and Thailand.
Ukrainian grain exports are expected to rise by over 1 mmt this marketing year with 1.13 mmt of grain already exported in the season that started July 1. This is a 62% increase over the 698k tons exported at this same time last year.

Amanda Brill