TFM Midday Update 07-12-2023

CORN

Parts of the central and southern Corn Belt should receive good rains over the next five days, bringing relief to some of the driest areas.
FOB corn prices in Brazil are still cheaper than the US, keeping pressure on exports.
About 30% of China’s corn is said to be in dry areas that could affect their production. This could lead to increased Chinese imports down the road, though where they source the beans from is another question.
July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa Exchange is around the equivalent of $4.80 per bushel. This is near the lowest level in two years.

Private exporters reported sales of 105,000 mt of soybean meal sold to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year.
Both soybean meal and oil are higher this morning, offering a boost to soybean futures. Palm oil is higher as well, providing some support too.
CPI data this morning showed that inflation increased 0.2% in June, which was below expectations.
China is increasing soybean imports from Brazil due to growing concerns about what US supply will look like. As of June 29, China has bought just 1.72 mmt of US soybeans (for 23/24) vs 7.77 mmt for the same time period last year.

Spring wheat areas have a mostly dry forecast for the next 7 days, including the northern US Plains and the Canadian prairies.
Russian drone attacks on the Odessa port in Ukraine led to some support in the wheat market yesterday. Reportedly, of the 20 drones sent, only 2 made it through Ukraine’s air defense system. In any case, this does not bode well for the extension of the export corridor that expires next week.
The US Dollar Index is sharply lower this morning. Wheat does not seem to be responding much, but this could have a bigger impact on exports down the road if the USD continues to decline.
Japan is tendering for 123,770 mt of food-quality wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia.

Brandon Doherty