TFM Midday Update 07-12-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday ahead of the WASDE report which will be released at 11am central. At this point, futures have given up all of yesterday’s gains as trade anticipates a bearish report.
Estimates for today’s USDA report are for a small increase in old crop ending stocks and a new crop carryout which could be near 2.3 billion bushels. The data from the June 1 stocks report will be included in this report in which 150 mb more of stocks were found.
Yesterday, CONAB revised its estimates for the Brazilian corn crop and increased it to 115.86 mmt which compared to last week’s guess of 114.14 mmt. The USDA will likely keep their estimate above CONAB’s today as it has done all season.

Soybeans are trading lower at midday along with the rest of the grain complex as trade expects a mostly bearish USDA report. Futures have slid from earlier this morning when prices were slightly higher, and now both soybean meal and oil are both lower as well.
Expectations for today’s report are for new crop soybean ending stocks to fall slightly by 6 mb to 449 mb, but the range of estimates is wide and could leave trade surprised. The USDA has maintained its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop well above CONAB’s, so it is unlikely they will drop production estimates much today.
Yesterday’s export sales report was on the low end of trade estimates with 7.6 mb of old crop sold, 7 mb of new crop, and shipments soft at 9.8 mb. China made its first purchase of new crop soybeans this week, but they will need to purchase more to move the market in a significant way.

All three wheat classes are trading lower today with KC wheat leading the way down, having given up most of yesterday’s gains, while Chicago and Minneapolis contracts are mostly all below yesterday’s range. Prices have been moving in wide ranges each day but have been rangebound overall over the past month.
Expectations for today’s report are for total wheat production to rise by 37 mb and for ending stocks to rise by 29 mb to 788 mb on June 30, 2025. While the report is expected to be bearish, much of it could be priced in at this point.
Yesterday’s export sales report showed an increase of 8.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 which was below the range of trade estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 10.8 mb were below the 15.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates, and primary destinations were to Japan, South Korea, and Thailand.

Amanda Brill