TFM Midday Update 07-13-2023


  • The USDA reported an increase of 18.4 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 18.5 mb for 23/24.
  • CPI data yesterday is leading to some thoughts that the Fed may be nearing the end of the interest rate increases. This is also pressuring the US dollar and maybe putting some risk premium back into financial and commodity markets.
  • The western Corn Belt looks to be drier and warmer for the second week of the forecast.
  • The USDA’s increased estimate of Brazilian corn production, at 133 mmt (vs 132 previously), will likely limit upside for US futures. Brazil export values are also cheaper than US, pressuring the export market too.


  • The USDA reported an increase of 3.0 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 7.7 mb for 23/24.
  • Private exporters reported sales of 315,704 mt of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
  • Yesterday’s USDA estimate of new crop soybean carryout at 300 mb was higher than many anticipated.
  • Chinese soybean imports in June totaled 10.27 mmt; this is 24.5% above last year for the same timeframe.


  • The USDA reported an increase of 14.5 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24.
  • The USDA estimated 4.76 bb of global wheat ending stocks (excluding China). This is the lowest in 11 years.
  • The 8-14 day forecast is predicting below normal rainfall for spring wheat areas in the northern US plains. Canda is also dry, which may affect their canola and spring wheat production.
  • According to the Rosario Board of Trade, Argentina is expected to plant 5.4 million hectares of wheat, a 200,000 hectare decline from the June estimate. Production is estimated at 15.6 mmt.


Brandon Doherty

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