TFM Midday Update 07-14-2025

CORN

Corn futures are higher at midday after a lower open on Sunday night.
Over the weekend, the Trump administration announced a 30% tariff on both the European Union and Mexico, set to begin August 1. The news is especially significant for corn, as Mexico is the top buyer of U.S. corn. The move adds another layer of uncertainty to an already pressured market facing strong crop prospects and low prices.
USDA raised Brazil’s 2025 corn production estimate by 2 MMT to 132 MMT, aligning with Conab’s update the day prior. This bumped up global corn stocks (excluding China), though overall inventories remain near 12-year lows, keeping the global supply picture historically tight.

Soybean futures are lower to unchanged at midday.
Friday’s USDA report showed a 5% increase in 2025-26 soybean crush projections, driven by new biofuel policies. The 45Z tax credit and EPA’s RFS proposal favor U.S. feedstocks, boosting expected soybean oil use for biofuel by 3.25 billion pounds.
Weather forecasts through late July remain favorable, with continued chances for widespread moisture across the Midwest supporting crop development.

Wheat futures are slightly lower to start the week as winter wheat harvest progresses on in the U.S.
USDA raised its forecast for durum and spring wheat production to 584 mb, which would be supported by the second-highest spring wheat yield on record. However, traders may view this estimate with skepticism given ongoing hot, dry conditions in the northwestern U.S. and poor crop ratings in key states like Montana.
In Argentina, recent rains improved wheat crop conditions; planting is 91% complete with 6.7 million hectares expected.

Keegan Madigan