TFM Midday Update 07-18-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.



  • Sep corn up 11 @ 6.16
  • Corn is higher after weekend rains were mostly limited to northern Missouri and parts of Illinois to Ohio
  • Heat advisories are posted across the western US Plains after triple-digit temperatures were seen as far North as eastern Montana on Sunday, with more extreme heat forecast
  • On Friday, the USDA reported a sale of 5.2 mb of corn to China, but the announcement was withdrawn later in the day
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers yet again reducing their net long position to 247,156 contracts, their smallest position in 8 months


  • Sep soybeans up 43 @ 14.03
  • The entire soy complex is significantly higher as crude oil gains and weather forecasts remain hot and dry
  • Soybean oil is also being helped by a 9% bounce in palm oil, and President Biden’s trip to the Saudi Arabia resulted in no changes to oil production
  • With soybean acreage pegged at 88.3 million acres or less, soybean supplies should remain tight until Brazil’s crop arrives next year
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers again reducing their net long position to 115,119 contracts, their smallest position this year


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  • Sep wheat up 34 @ 8.11, Sep KC up 34 @ 8.72, & Sep MNPLS up 29 @ 9.35
  • Wheat is rallying after reports over the weekend showed that Russia has increased their attacks on Ukraine in major cities to cut off access to the Black Sea
  • Russia’s continued attacks make it highly unlikely that grain will be allowed to exit the country regardless of the agreement to be signed by the two countries and Turkey this week
  • Non-commercial long positions in KC wheat now represent 25% of open interest, the lowest share in two years
  • Over the weekend, a heatwave was reported in western Europe, and wildfires in Spain, Portugal, and Italy that may strain the crops


  • Aug LC up 0.050 @ 134.975 & Aug FC down 0.575 @ 175.750
  • Live cattle are higher, while feeders are lower, likely due to the move higher in corn
  • Cash averages for last week came in around 137 in the South called steady, and northern dressed at mostly 230, 2 dollars lower than last week
  • Boxed beef prices have been mixed to trending lower as seasonality and inflationary concerns come into play
  • Choice cuts up 1.16 and select down 0.12
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 7/15: down 1.43 @ 172.62


  • Aug hogs up 1.800 @ 111.625 & Aug pork cutout up 0.200 @ 114.525
  • Hogs are higher this morning with cutouts continuing to show their strength gaining 3.67 Friday afternoon to 122.18
  • August futures are moving closer to where July went off the board on Friday, and futures are still at a significant discount to cash
  • Cash will likely see a boost as the packer replenishes their inventory to begin the week
  • National Direct Afternoon report fell 1.46
  • Hog slaughter projected at 457K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 7/18: up 0.76 @ 114.15


Amanda Brill

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